The Stability of Magnetic Flux Ropes: Bridging Observations and Experiments with Simulations

The formation and stability properties of magnetic flux ropes are fundamental to the origins of solar activity and the subsequent space weather events. We propose to use a combination of observations, nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) models, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations, and experimental results to address the following key science question: What governs the stability of magnetic flux ropes in the solar corona? In particular, we will use numerical simulations as a
bridge between observations and laboratory studies of flux rope stability. We will develop NLFFF models of solar active regions using the magnetofrictional method. These models will be based on observational data from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO); the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) and Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO); and the X-Ray Telescope (XRT) on Hinode. We will model and analyze stable and unstable active regions to investigate how the surrounding magnetic field environment and its evolution impact flux rope stability. We will use the NLFFF models that best match observations as initial conditions for MHD numerical simulations. We will use each of these simulations to study how the magnetic field structure impacts stability in both cases, and synthesize the results to understand the implications of the esults on the stability of active regions. The proposed effort will address the Heliophysics Decadal Survey key science goal to determine the origins of the Sun’s activity and predict the variations in the space environment by investigating the stability properties of active regions and connecting experimental and observational studies using numerical simulations. The proposed effort will address the decadal survey’s key science goal to discover and characterize fundamental processes that occur both within the heliosphere and throughout the Universe by investigating flux rope instabilities.